Minnesota's Problem? They Just Might Not Be That Good...

After winning the AL Central with an impressive 94-68 record in 2010, the Minnesota Twins are off to one of the worst starts in baseball this season. Actually, through May 5th, the Twins were tied for the worst record in the MLB with division rival Chicago at a dismal 11-18.  Although Francisco Liriano is fresh off his no-hit performance, and the team just won two important division games, it is clear the magic of Target Field is gone.  The question is... why?

Well, it may be that the Twins just aren't that good.  Just take a look at their roster.  An infield featuring Alexi Casilla and a rotation of Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes is hardly characteristic of a playoff caliber team.  Moreover, the lone star of the infield, Justin Morneau, clearly isn't 100% recovered from his concussion suffered last season in Toronto.  In fact, he's off to one of the worst starts of his career, batting just .207 with 1 home run, less than one season from being an MVP candidate.  Danny Valencia - thought to be the long sought after answer at third base - has done nothing to prove he is the potential star many thought he could be.  As of Thursday, Valencia is batting just .218 with 2 home runs.

Twins Lone Bright Spot: Jason Kubel

The Twins issues, however, extend far beyond the infield.  Even before last season, the Twins knew they had one of the worst defensive outfields in baseball.  This was often overlooked since, frankly, they were smacking the hell out of the ball.  A flowing rotation of the emerging Delmon Young, Jason Kubel, Denard Span, Jason Repko and Michael Cuddyer offered just enough speed, with more than enough power.  This year, however, the outfield has a combined 7 home runs, and this includes the lone bright spot of this years squad Jason Kubel (currently batting .350 with 13 RBI's).  Without the power in the outfield as a whole, it is hard to justify why they are all still on the roster.  The combination of weak offense and poor defense is rarely a winning formula.


Yet even these shortcomings don't fully explain the abismal start to the 2011 season.  A combination of a poor offseason and just plain bad luck with injuries has the Twins sitting at the bottom 29 games in.  The Twins relief pitching staff, last years surprise standout (where they led the league in bullpen ERA), was decimated by a series of free agent departures, and were replaced with a group of mildly talented, unproven pitchers.  Successful Twins relievers Jesse Crain, Jon Rauch and Pat Neshek were allowed to walk, despite having no clear plan on how to replace them effectively.   As I previously mentioned, the problems go on.  Morneau isn't back to his elite level, not even close.  Mauer, who reportedly SHOULDN'T HAVE STARTED THE SEASON, is now on the disabled list, the first season of his new 8-year $184 million deal, due to an issue in his knee.  While this specific injury doesn't seem to merit too much long term concern, any time you have tens of millions invested in a 6'4" freak athlete of a catcher, you need to be careful with a 'sore knee'.  More importantly, his replacement Drew Butera, while a defensively solid backup, is likely the worst hitter on the team.  Joe Nathan, still recovering from last years Tommy-Johns surgery, is still struggling to regain his old form.  Fortunately, the Twins kept one important reliever in the bullpen, and have a capable closer in Matt Capps.  (Although, this combination costs nearly $20M for an 'above average' closing duo').  Tsuyoshi Nishioka, the potential 'next japanese star' from this offseason, made it only 6 games into the season before a Nick Swisher slide broke his fibula, putting him on the DL, where he is today.  As if that all weren't enough, Delmon Young, Jim Thome, Jason Repko and Kevin Slowey also have made their way to the DL recently.  

So, with all that said, do the Twins have any shot at a postseason spot?  Of course they do.  They have the reigning Manager of the Year, two recent AL MVP's and a potential diamond in the rough in Nishioka, who many say has the potential to be a very good MLB player.  The injuries will have to subside eventually, and he team has the prospects to make a move that can help as the season progresses.  When they do, it'll be up to Ron Gardenhire and his team to work themselves out of the hole they've dug.  Moreover, although much of the roster has over achieved until this season, their numbers wont stay as bad as they currently are.  It can be done, they've done it before with nearly this same team, but one thing's for sure, its going to be a long season for Twins Fans.