More Madness: Arizona can beat Duke

Arizona's Derek Williams and the Wildcats are poised to continue their deep run in the NCAA Tourney 

Arizona is back.  After missing their first NCAA tournament in 25 years last season, the Wildcats, led by sophomore Derrick Williams, are poised to continue their deep run in the 2011 tourney.  After two close wins over Memphis and a talented Texas team, the PAC-10 regular season champs are set to face off with ACC Champion Duke in the Sweet 16 on Thursday.

Duke, the defending NCAA Champions, and #1 seed in the "West" bracket (they've played their previous games in Charlotte, North Carolina), are favored by 9 in Vegas.  A perennial powerhouse, the Blue Devils' combination of superb coaching and on-court talent are as good as gets.  Lead by Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith, and with the return of freshman phenom Kyrie Irving, many have Duke penciled into the Final Four.   After closer inspection, however, it might be the Wildcats who paving their way to Houston.

Arizona's Williams is the most talented player on the court just about every night, and Thursday will be no exception.  Despite boasting the nations 6th best defense, Duke simply does not have a player who can match up with Williams.  Yes, they are physical, but that won't be enough to stop the sophomore. Williams has taken advantage of physical teams all season, and he leads the nation in free throw attempts.  Moreover, Duke's lack of depth at the forward position will only be magnified if (or when) one of them gets into foul trouble.  This is exactly what the Wildcats were able to do to a Texas team with far more talent at the forward position.   If Duke does fall in to foul trouble, they are likely to get dominated on the boards, as they rank 177th in the NCAA in defensive rebounding.  If Arizona can create second and third shot opportunities, and limit Dukes positions, they just may have a chance to reach their first Elite 8 since 2005.

It isn't just Arizona's post presence that will give them a shot at moving on, though.  Despite no true star-power, Arizona ranks 11th from behind the arc and they defend the deep ball just as well.  In fact, they shot a staggering 57% from three against the nations second best 3-point defense in Texas.  Duke, on the other hand, struggled shooting 3's against the talented, yet hardly prolific defense of Michigan.  Unfortunately for Blue Devil's fans, the Wildcats are second best in the nation at defending the three this season.  Duke lives and dies by the 3, and if they can't find a way to get open looks -- and sink them-- we may see yet another upset in this crazy NCAA tournament.

To be clear, I'm not saying Arizona WILL beat the Blue Devils... or not even that they SHOULD.  But if they go out and execute Thursday, anything can happen






                                                                                                                              
                                                    Arizona or Duke: Leave your 
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