Tuesday, June 14, 2011

How The Heat Can Win It All In 2012, And Beyond

Miami's big 3 wasn't enough in 2011, can they improve for 2012 and beyond?

Depending on your affiliation, you are likely still thrilled or devastated by the Dallas Maverick's shocking victory over the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals.  Whether you are basking in the glory of seeing Lebron James struggle on the biggest stage of his career, or still recovering from the letdown of what once seemed a guaranteed championship , know one thing... the Heat are here to stay.  Like it or not, we are looking at a team poised to contend, as they said themselves, for multiple championships.  But how can Miami improve their chances of winning it all in the upcoming seasons?  Their options may be limited, but here's where they need to start.

First and foremost, the Heat will have $71 million invested in 6 players in 2013: Wade, James, Bosh, Joel Anthony, Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller, so significant roster improvements in the long term may not be much of an option.  They do, however, have a surprising amount of cap room to improve via free agency.  The problem is, the current salary cap rules are likely to change under the next collective bargaining agreement.  Moreover, if, as some expect, the NBA implements a hard salary cap in 2011, Miami will likely be very limited in their free agent options.  The reason the new salary cap rules could effect the Heat so greatly is actually rather simple.  If the league implements a hard cap, it would then eliminate the mid level exception that teams such as the Heat so desperately rely on.  The midlevel exception allows a team who is over the cap, or would over be if they signed this player, to sign a player to a contract equal to the current average NBA contract.  Essentially, it gives teams with little to no financial flexibility an opportunity to offer a decent contract to a free agent.  Additionally the MLE allows teams to split up the money ($5.854 million in 2010) to use for multiple free agents.  With this option, the Heat could potentially lure a top-flight free agent willing to take a mid-level exception for a chance to win a title.  While this aspect is entirely up in the air, here's a look at some options from the 2011 free agent class.  

Mario Chalmers - The Heat must, let me repeat, must, resign Mario Chalmers.  While he's not an all-star caliber point guard, he doesn't need to be on this squad.  He is a young, capable, ball-handler who is 
improving dramatically as he gets more experience playing with the Big Three.  He is an adequate 3 point shooter and is nearly flawless from the charity stripe.  Most importantly, with Eddie House their only PG under contract for next season, the Heat literally have to bring in another guard.  Any other player available would be brought into a new system, and have to adjust to play with the Big 3 as the season progresses.  Chalmers is already well on his way to that comfort level, and he is well liked by the fans in Miami.  I am almost certain this will happen, and in fact, sportsnet.ca reports that the Heat have already extended a qualifying offer to Chalmers since the finals ended.  


Samuel Dalembert - Simply put, Dalembert would be a solid, and realistic, option with the Mid-Level Exception. He would provide a strong interior presence with both his shot blocking and rebounding prowess.  His offensive inability would not be an issue since he would be surrounded by probably the best offensive trio in the league, and he would be able to play his game and be effective.  Additionally, Miami already has one of the best overall defenses in the league, the addition of Dalembert would not only improve their interior, but it would allow Wade and James to play even tighter defense on the outside.  It will also reduce the scenarios where Chris Bosh was forced to play against the opposing center, a matchup that does not fit his skill set particularly well.  In my opinion, Dalembert is the most likely player on this list to join the Heat in 2012.

Jamal Crawford - Crawford will turn 32 at the end of next season, and may be looking to jump ship and sign on with a contender.  While Crawford doesn't fix exactly what the Heat are missing, he would undoubtedly be a welcome asset.  He would be a force coming off the bench, and opposing defenses would have difficulty stopping an offensive onslaught of a rotation containing James, Wade, Crawford and Bosh.  Unfortunately his defense is somewhat suspect and, while he draws a lot of fouls, he doesn't attack the rim and make his presence known inside.  Overall, I think it is unlikely he ends up in Miami, but its something they'll surely take a look at.

Tyson Chandler - While it may seem improbable just a week after his Mavericks won their first title in franchise history, Chandler will likely be on the move this summer, and the Miami Heat may be a possible destination.  Chandler's defensive prowess and shot altering ability would give Miami an inside presence that was often missing in the playoffs.  More importantly, adding him to the lineup not only allows Chris Bosh to continue start at his natural position, but it would instantly improve Miami's interior, as well as perimeter defense.  He would, however, have to explain this to LeBron.  Again, don't count on it if you're a Miami fan, but it would be the perfect addition.  

Grant Hill - at 39, Hill will be likely looking at his last opportunity to win a ring.  Despite his age, however, he can still bring a lot to the table.  From day one he would become the well respected veteran leader role, which he is capable of.  Many times in the playoffs it looked like LeBron and Co. couldn't buy a basket, and it spiraled down until it looked like Spoelstra they just wanted to Quit.  With Hill, however, that would no longer be an issue.  He would get on his guys when necessary, and he still has the talent after 15 years in the league to score in pressure situations and get them out of those devastating slumps.  
Next, the Heat need to "draft smart" and fill their needs.  After making room to sign Lebron, Wade, Bosh and Miller last season, they lost their 2011 first round pick, among other tings.  They do, however, have Minnesota's 2nd round pick (31st overall) from the Michael Beasley trade... and while they may not have a plethora of picks, they still have an opportunity to improve themselves through the draft.  Their ideal pick would be PG Reggie Jackson out of Boston College.  At 6'3'', 200 lbs, Jackson has the legit NBA size and athleticism to go along with in insane 7-foot wingspan. He's quick off the dribble, is great in transition and is a very solid perimeter defender who can match up with opposing point guards and shooting guards.  The only problem is, he could very well be gone by the time the Heat pick.  Another solid option would be JaJuan Johnson, the athletic but slender power forward out of Purdue, who has great shooting range, is a true shot blocker and shot nearly 81% from the free throw line in college (all of which the Heat could use).

The Heat, however, have even more to do off the court.  But they're off to a good start.  Miami needs to instill a sense of stability that hasn't been present since the day LeBron signed... and Pat Riley's confirmation that he will not return to coaching, and thus his support of Eric Spoelstra is exactly what the doctor ordered.  While something tells me the Heat will never entirely stay out of the media spotlight, laying as low as possible may lesson some of the pressure and expectations (which admittedly got to them last season) and allow arguably the most talented team in the NBA not only win a title, but become a contender for years to come.

No comments:

Post a Comment