Tuesday, October 4, 2011

What The Future Could Hold For College Football



Just a year after the Nebraska and Colorado cut ties with the Big 12, multiple other schools are starting to follow suit.  In what could be a devastating blow the Big 12 and Big East the programs, which critics say are fueled by 'money and football', may have triggered a mass exodus that will change the college athletic landscape as we know it.  While many claim this will negatively impact student-athletes as well as the rivalries that have been built up over the past couple of decades or more, there is reason to get excited.

Keep in mind, this is just one of many possible layouts of the future of college football.  But if the decision was up to me, here's exactly how it would look.





Boston College, Connecticut, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami, Notre Dame, North Carolina, N.C. State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

After the recent announcement that Syracuse and Pitt are both jumping ship to the ACC, commissioner John Swofford left open the possibility that the conference could continue to add another two programs in the coming years.   While many teams are sure to be lining up for a chance to play in one of the nations most prestigious athletic conferences, two in particular are likely to get that offer.  The University of Connecticut would not only be a geographical match, but would further strengthen the ACC's basketball dominance.  Notre Dame, probably the most desired conference acquisition target in the country, is close enough to make sense, and fits in perfectly with the ACC's high standard of both academic and athletic prowess.  Although they would likely have to shed their football independence, annual match-ups against schools like Florida State and Miami are sure to draw national interest, and more importantly big TV ratings.






Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Texas??, Wisconsin

The Big10, besides already desperately needing a name change, will likely be looking to add another 2-4 teams in the coming years.  By dipping back into the Big 12 the Big10 could easily add a couple quality programs that would be conducive to locational rivalries and while spreading the conferences national presence.  The two teams that appear to be good fits are Iowa State and Texas.  Both are good, midwestern programs and both could drastically benefit from a change of scenery from their current conference.  Iowa and Iowa State's rivalry, while it already exists, would only be strengthened by having a conference, and likely divisional, game on the line.  Additionally, the Cyclone fan base could rekindle even stronger ties than they previously had with Nebraska.

Notre Dame makes a lot of sense here as well.   While most of the schools don't have the academic prestige that many of the ACC teams do, the Fighting Irish are located perfectly in the heart of Big 10 country.  Rumors have been swirling for years that the Irish could join the Big 10 in all sports, and for good reason.  In fact, many of the teams they already play are Big 10 schools.  While they will likely have some options, and they certainly aren't opposed to staying independent, joining the Big 10 might be in their best interest in the long run.  Either way, I think Notre Dame joins a major conference (in all sports) within the next 5 years.

Another possibility, Texas, wont be easy to add, but if they can pull it off it would instantly boost the national coverage and the likelihood of a Big 10 team being in contention for a national title each year.  The major roadblock, obviously, is going to be figuring out a revenue sharing plan, complicated by the launch of the Longhorn Network, that all the member schools can agree upon.  If they can get past that, Texas would help keep the Big 10 relevant year after year.

If that doesn't work, however, another (albeit very different) option would be another Texas-based school, Baylor.  While they won't bring the name recognition Texas does, the Bears would still be a quality addition to the Big 10.  More importantly, Baylor has always felt like Texas' hated step-sister in the Big 12 to me, and a change of scenery may help them out of the Longhorns shadow and, in the long run, drastically improve their program.



Arizona, Arizona State, California, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington, Washington State

The first BCS conference to make a major splash may be the first to cap their expansion.  Just one year after adding Utah and Colorado, the conference has come out saying they have no plans to expand the conference beyond the current 12 teams.  While this certainly may change, I can actually see the reasoning behind the move, or rather lack of move.  12 teams is without a doubt enough to keep them relevant in the coming era of the 'superconferences', and the current conference already seems to spread the geographical region that the PAC-10 was meant to cover, to a max.  In fact, many have argued that the addition of Colorado and Utah already have spread the conference to far out from its base of interest.  Moreover, any schools that may interest the PAC-12 are likely currently in the Big12, and located in the Midwest.  

The two schools that may draw interest are obviously Texas and Oklahoma.  Again, attempting to bring in Texas in to any conference will include involve numerous obstacles that need to be overcome.  Nonetheless, Texas is one of the most attractive 'free agents' out there, and if you pair it with their natural rival and perennial powerhouse Oklahoma, its hard to say any conference wouldn't want them.  The only other issue question may be, do Texas and Oklahoma stretch the conference too far into the middle of the country, and away from their west-coast base?


Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Like the PAC-12, the SEC has recently come out saying they are not looking to expand the conference beyond the recent acquisition of Texas A&M.  Yet, its hard to believe the most powerful football conference in the country will sit back and watch while the rival conferences increase their membership, and more importantly profitability.  A likely candidate is Missouri.  A strong, albeit not elite, program that is close enough to the SEC market to quickly work themselves into the conference and even form a few geographic rivalries.  Beyond that, it mostly depends what happens to the Big12 and Big East.  If they stay intact, which is certainly a big 'if', SEC expansion may stop at an even 14.  




Finally, we are left with two big question marks.  Since most of the teams that have, or will be moving conferences are from the Big East or Big12, what happens to the teams left over?  Will they each add teams from smaller conferences to fill in holes left by the recent departures?  Will they decide to join forces and create a superconference? There are a lot of possibilities.  What happens to Texas and Oklahoma will likely determine what happens to the rest of the schools.  


Will all of this happen? Certainly not.  But there are some interesting possibilities.  The wheels of change are in motion, and college football will look very different in the coming years... and I can't wait to see it.  

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