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| The Phantastic Phour Halladay - Oswalt - Lee - Hamels |
While nobody can question these guys, at least on paper, are the best rotation going into next season, could they be the best all-time? To try to find an answer, lets first look at some numbers.
- Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels and Lee all had a WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 4.3 or better last season (Baseball-reference.com). Only 3 teams in MLB history have previously achieved this: The 1909 A's (Chief Bender, Eddie Plank, Harry Krause and Cy Morgan), the 1967 Reds (Maloney, Gary Nolen, Pappas, Queen) and finally the 1991 Braves (Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Steve Avery, Charlie Leibrandt).
- Next we can look at the two teams besides this new Phillies lineup that have matched their number in ERA+: The 1942 Tigers (Hal Newhouser, Virgil Trucks, Al Benton, Tommy Bridges, Hal White) and the 1997 Braves (Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux, Neagle)
- The current lineup has a combined 20-8 playoff record with a 3.08 ERA
So, those impressive statistics should be enough to cement them as an "elite" group, but the best? As of now, they're just a group of four guys on a team, who happen to be really really good at throwing a ball, and have pretty good track records of doing it.
What has yet to be seen is how the team will gel together, and will they continue to pitch at their previous levels in the 2011 season. If they do get along well and pitch as they have been, they have the potential to not only win the 2011 World Series, but to go down in history as the greatest rotation of all time.
To answer the initial question (Are they the best rotation ever?), I'll say: not yet. I say this for a few reasons.
ReplyDeleteFirst, as you stated, it's all about how the team gels and plays in the end. If the Phillies' offense disappears like it did for stretches last season, they've got no chance no matter who's on the mound for them every night. I mean, Halladay and Co. can't pitch a no-hitter every night. In the 90's, Maddux and Co. down in Atlanta had some great support night in and night out from Chipper and Andruw Jones to help them with their winning percentage and put less pressure on them as pitchers.
Next, and almost more importantly, they must stay healthy physically and mentally. One unlucky break on the field could dismantle at least a quarter of this group. Also, if 1 of the 4 loses it mentally because he suddenly might not be the ace of his squad, they could be in serious trouble as well. The reason that the 90's Braves squad was so successful was that they each knew the part they had to play and played it very well. Also, I know they're pitchers, but these Phillies players are not as young as they used to be, so good managing by Manuel is needed to monitor their pitch counts so that they don't throw something crazy like 130 pitches per outing and wear out their arms by the late regular season; however, with the NL East in the state it is right now, they might have it clinched with a full 3 weeks left in the season, giving them plenty of time to rest.
Looking at your numbers, I'm not sure what WAR is (looked it up and got even more confused about it), these guys should easily jump into 2nd all-time just because they're in the NL. That said, I'm still not willing to say they're the best rotation ever because counting your chickens before they hatch generally doesn't work out for you (i.e. 2010 Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings). Like that trio playing basketball down in Miami, this Phantastic Phour has the potential to eclipse the 90's Braves' squads and all others, but until they get on the field and do it, I'm not gonna buy into the hype completely.
Thanks for the comment! I definitely agree with what you're saying. The talent is there, but like the Cowboys and Vikes, talent isn't everything. They have to keep their egos in check (would Oswalt be upset being titled a 'middle of the rotation pitcher'? and they have to stay healthy... which isn't always an easy thing for a pitcher. Only time will tell, but it sure is a nice situation to have
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